Campaign 2008

Welcome to the father and son team of Jon and Adam. We are closely following the 2008 campaign and would like to offer you our insights into what is really going on in both primary races. We are both right of center independents and generally vote Republican. But we are fascinated with politics, generally, and we are off to a captivating race in 2008 on both sides of the aisle.

I would like to christen this blog with some thoughts on the Republican race. It is abundantly clear that the Republican nominee will be one of the top four candidates, namely McCain, Huckabee, Romney and Giuliani. But it is becoming even clearer that no candidtae is likely to secure enough delegates to get the nomination on the first ballot.

While Giuliani had the best chance to steamroll through the primaries, his strategic blunder of skipping the early states will haunt him. He is likely to win a lot of delegates on Super Tuesday, but so will his opponents.

Romney likely faces the biggest uphill battle. He is running well in a number of states, but he is not winning. He faces a must win situation in Michigan. He has plenty of staying power (his ebbing personal fortune), but money alone will not win him the nomination.

In true form, Senator McCain's performance has been the most erratic. His campaign was in tatters in the summer and he now must maintain some discipline in his campaign and continue to capitalize on his victory in New Hampshire. He continues to be the biggest beneficiary of Giuliani's strategic blunder and could beat Giuliani in some of the "Blue" states on Super Tuesday.

Mike Huckabee has been the biggest surprise on the Republican side. He is consistently winning debates and is winning the hearts and minds of social conservatives. The "stigma" of his previous incarnation as a baptist preacher may put a glass ceiling on his campaign, yet if he wins 2 out of the next 3 states (Michigan, South Carolina and Florida) he will have a lot of momentum going into Super Tuesday and could end up winning the lion's share of delegates.

So you can put me on the record as predicting no nominee before the convention. But there could very well be some serious horse trading between the top candidates. Can anyone say "McCain/Huckabee 2008?"

I'll comment on the Democratic side in my next post.

Jon